Live signals on Kalshi BTC 15-min markets

High-conviction signals for
Prediction Markets

SpectralBot runs Cotes AI's spectral analysis on Kalshi markets in real time — high-conviction UP/DOWN signals delivered to your Telegram every 15 minutes, each auto-scored against settlement.

Open SpectralBot in Telegram → See How It Works ↓
0% HC Win Rate
0+ Kalshi Contests
0 signals/day Per ticker
0 Tickers tracked
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The System

Three layers. One edge.

From raw price feed to actionable signal, every 15 minutes, around the clock.

01

Dual-Feed Ingestion

Coinbase spot prices and Kalshi YES probabilities stream in simultaneously. The QRD Observatory aggregates both across 5 timeframes (5s → 15m) in real time.

Coinbase WS · Kalshi API · 5 lanes
→
02

QRD Spectral Analysis

The proprietary Quantum Resonance Detector engine applies FFT across 4 window sizes, extracting 1,305 phase-coherence features per bar. Unavailable in any other platform.

FFT · Phase Lock · Coherence · 4 windows
→
03

Signal → Telegram

A trained LightGBM classifier fires UP or DOWN calls when P(UP) clears the high-confidence threshold (≥0.85). Signals land on your phone before the market moves.

LightGBM · QRD · Telegram Bot API
Live Signal Example

Real calls.
Real outcomes.

Every signal includes the predicted probability, entry price, and contest window. At T+15, Cotes AI auto-scores against Kalshi settlement with no manual logging.

  • Three-tier settlement oracle (Kalshi → prob threshold → price)
  • Full audit trail per contest, database-backed
  • W/L/PnL tracked and published to subscribers
  • Session stats available on-demand from the bot keyboard
Get Signals →
C
Cotes AI
● online
Product Suite

Built to scale from one signal
to a full trading system.

Core
⬡

QRD Observatory

Always-on Windows service that collects dual-feed spectral bars for every tracked ticker. Pre-warms with 4,000+ minutes of historical data at cold start. Publishes live bars over WebSocket.

  • 6 tickers: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, HYPE
  • 5 aggregation lanes per ticker
  • 4,000+ minutes of historical warm-up
  • Real-time spectral bars, always on
Observatory
📡

SpectralBot

Subscribes to the Observatory, runs LightGBM inference at T3 to T5, and fires high-confidence UP/DOWN signals to your Telegram. Auto-scores at settlement.

  • 90.6% win rate at high confidence
  • UP/DOWN calls before the market moves
  • Auto-scores at Kalshi settlement
  • Session P&L tracking on demand
Signal Bot
📊

Analytics Dashboard

Web-based performance portal. Live win rate curves, feature importance, regime detection, and retraining triggers, all from your signal database.

  • Real-time W/L/PnL waterfall
  • Regime detection overlays
  • Feature drift monitoring
  • Retraining pipeline integration
Coming Soon
⚡

Live Executor

Fully automated Kalshi order placement on high-confidence signals. Kelly-fraction sizing, max-trade caps, fill verification, and four safety-gate graduation path.

  • Kelly-fraction position sizing
  • Per-trade cap ($20 max default)
  • Stop-loss + abort logic
  • Multi-ticker order routing
Coming Soon
Under the Hood

QRD: The edge
prediction markets haven't seen.

Most traders look at price alone. Cotes AI looks at the relationship between price and probability, across time, across frequencies — purpose-built for Kalshi prediction markets.

〜

Phase Coherence

FFT decomposes both price and probability series into frequency components. Coherence measures how tightly their phases lock at each frequency. A reading near 1.0 signals alignment, near 0 signals divergence.

⊞

Multi-Timeframe Fusion

Four FFT window sizes (32, 64, 128, 256 samples) × five lanes (5s → 15m) × six signal series = a feature space that captures structure at every relevant timescale simultaneously.

◈

Kalshi Market Alpha

Cotes AI is purpose-built for Kalshi prediction markets, not retrofitted from equity or crypto tools. Every feature, threshold, and model is trained and validated on real Kalshi contest data.

⬡

Ensemble Architecture

SpectralBot's architecture is built to consensus-vote across multiple specialist models. The current deployment runs a single LightGBM model, with the framework ready to add regime-specific experts without a rewrite.

Stack
LightGBM FFT / Spectral Analysis NumPy / SciPy Kalshi API Coinbase WS WebSocket Telegram Bot API
Track Record

Numbers that matter.

Trained and tested on real Kalshi BTC 15-minute contests. Not synthetic data, not backtests on already-known prices.

90.6%
HC Win Rate
High-confidence signals (P≥0.85)
73.3%
Overall Win Rate
All signals including borderline
4,000+
Contests Recorded
Real Kalshi BTC contests recorded (Apr–Jun 2026)
1,305
Features per Model
FFT-derived spectral coherence metrics
Live now

Start following the signal.

SpectralBot is live on Telegram — high-conviction UP/DOWN signals every 15 minutes, auto-scored against settlement. Open it and go.

Open SpectralBot in Telegram →

Signals delivered straight to your Telegram. Questions? sales@cotes.ai